Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said on Tuesday that the global oil market is currently well balanced, adding that demand is expected to increase gradually in March and April. He was responding to questions on the OPEC+ group’s production strategy after the alliance agreed on Sunday to maintain output levels for March.
Novak also noted that Russia has adequate fuel supplies and is currently experiencing a surplus.
Oil prices fell by more than 4% on Monday after US President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, raising expectations of easing tensions with the OPEC member.
Officials from both Iran and the United States said nuclear negotiations are set to resume in Turkey on Friday. Trump, however, warned that serious consequences could follow if talks fail, as the US moves major naval assets closer to Iran.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said discussions with Washington should continue as long as they safeguard Iran’s national interests and are conducted without threats or excessive demands.
OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said recent swings in oil prices have largely been driven by geopolitical risk premiums linked to the US administration’s assertive foreign policy, particularly its fluctuating stance toward Iran.
Meanwhile, Trump announced a trade agreement with India that reduces US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% in exchange for India halting purchases of Russian oil and easing trade restrictions. He said India had also agreed to buy oil from the United States and possibly Venezuela.
Analysts warned that if the deal leads to India cutting Russian imports, more Russian oil could remain unsold at sea. Cavendish analysts added that sharp shifts in global capital flows have intensified oil price volatility this year, noting that large short positions held earlier in the year have quickly reversed amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.