The ongoing conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have caused significant disruptions in global oil supply, leaving many African economies exposed.
The International Energy Agency estimates that roughly 600,000 barrels of oil products per day, normally destined for Africa from the Middle East, are at risk as tanker movements through this critical channel have slowed considerably.
African nations are highly dependent on imported fuels, often relying on specific countries to meet domestic needs. Kenya, for example, sources most of its fuel from the UAE, Oman, and India. With limited refining capacity at home and a daily demand of about 100,000 barrels, the country is required to maintain a 21-day fuel reserve.
This reliance on a small number of foreign suppliers makes Kenya particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions. Approximately 20% of petrol stations have reported shortages, although the energy ministry has denied any actual deficit, accusing some distributors of stockpiling in anticipation of price rises. Analysts caution that a prolonged conflict could increase living costs by 15 to 20%.
South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized economy, is also heavily dependent on fuel imports, sourcing much of its supply from India, Oman, and the UAE. Recently, India imposed export duties on diesel and jet fuel to secure domestic supply amid Middle East-related disruptions, a policy that could constrain South Africa’s imports, which include up to 24% of its diesel from India, potentially driving local fuel prices higher.
These developments highlight Africa’s vulnerability to global supply chains, particularly for oil and fuel, and underscore the continent’s exposure to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia.