Emerging market and developing economies, including Ghana, are projected to experience a rise in inflation in 2026, with the World Bank attributing the trend to increasing global energy prices and ongoing supply chain disruptions.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank estimates that inflation across emerging markets and developing economies will edge up to around 5.1% in 2026, overturning earlier expectations that price pressures would ease within the year.
The report links the anticipated increase largely to recent spikes in energy costs and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, both of which are driving up production expenses across multiple sectors worldwide.
It further explains that higher prices for fuel and other key commodities are likely to spread through supply chains, raising the cost of everyday goods and putting additional strain on consumers in developing countries.
Should global energy disruptions continue, the report cautions that inflationary pressures may intensify further.
In a more severe scenario involving a sharp rise in oil prices triggered by prolonged geopolitical tensions, inflation in emerging economies could range between 5.3% and 5.8% in 2026, marking one of the highest levels seen in the past ten years.
The report also notes that elevated energy prices could slow income growth in real terms, dampen consumer spending, and increase operating expenses for businesses across these economies.
According to the World Bank, many central banks in developing countries may be forced to keep monetary policy tight in response to inflation risks, a move that could raise borrowing costs and reduce investment momentum.
Overall, the outlook underscores how exposed emerging markets remain to fluctuations in global commodity prices, especially for countries that depend heavily on imported energy supplies.