South Africa is set to significantly increase fuel prices from Wednesday, May 6, after crude oil climbed above $100 per barrel due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, highlighting the country’s exposure to global energy volatility.
Benchmark Brent crude rose to $101 (R1,697) per barrel from $93.67 (R1,575), driven by supply interruptions linked to escalating US–Iran tensions and constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for global oil shipments.
As a net importer of crude and refined petroleum products, South Africa’s fuel pricing system is directly influenced by international market movements.
Motorists will see petrol prices increase by $0.19 (R3.27) per litre, while diesel will rise more sharply by $0.37 (R6.19) per litre. Illuminating paraffin is set to go up by $0.25 (R4.22) per litre at wholesale level, with further retail adjustments expected.
Tighter global supply and stronger demand led to steeper increases in diesel and paraffin, particularly as exports from the Persian Gulf region declined.
Before local adjustments, international market pressures alone contributed around $0.12 (R2.04) per litre to petrol and $0.30 (R4.96) per litre to diesel.
Minimal relief came from currency performance, with the rand’s stability reducing costs by less than $0.01 per litre overall.
To cushion consumers, the government introduced temporary reductions in fuel taxes, cutting $0.18 (R3.00) per litre from petrol and $0.23 (R3.93) per litre from diesel between May 6 and June 2.
The Ministry of Finance explained that the adjustment was necessary due to ongoing US–Iran tensions, which continue to influence global fuel markets, and also announced a temporary reduction in the general fuel levy.
However, part of this relief will be offset by a slate levy of $0.07 (R1.23) per litre, introduced to recover an under-recovery of $842 million (R14.17 billion) within the national fuel pricing framework.
Other energy products were also affected, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising by about $0.30 (R5.07) per kilogram in Gauteng and $0.34 (R5.78) in the Western Cape. The import refinery gate price through Saldanha Bay was set at $1,093 (R18,375.72) per metric ton.
Monthly adjustments in South Africa’s fuel pricing are based on global oil trends, exchange rate movements and domestic cost factors, underscoring how quickly international shocks translate into higher local prices in import-dependent economies.
Across the continent, the trend reflects a wider challenge, as countries that have phased out fuel subsidies, including Nigeria, remain highly exposed to global oil swings, with knock-on effects for inflation, transport costs and household budgets.
With uncertainty in the Middle East persisting, analysts expect fuel prices to remain elevated in the near term.