July 4 may be Independence Day in the United States, but in the United Kingdom, it’s Election Day this year. On Thursday, British voters will choose a new prime minister and Parliament, with polls suggesting a landslide outcome.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is expected to suffer significant losses. Sunak may even become the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat in Parliament. The opposition Labour Party is projected to form the next British government.
This scenario contrasts with events in other parts of Europe, such as France, where Marine Le Pen’s far-right party recently won the first round of legislative elections.
Who’s Running?
The U.K. political landscape is dominated by two main parties: the center-right Conservatives and the center-left Labour Party. The Conservatives are led by Rishi Sunak, who has been British prime minister since October 2022. Labour is headed by Keir Starmer, the main opposition leader since April 2020.
Smaller parties include the centrist Liberal Democrats led by Ed Davey, the environmentalist Green Party led by Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, and the far-right Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage.
Conservatives Face Potential Wipeout
The Conservative Party, also known as the Tories, has governed the U.K. for 14 years, often considering itself Britain’s “natural party of government.” However, polls indicate the Conservatives could lose more than two-thirds of their parliamentary seats. This marks a dramatic shift from the last general election in 2019 when they won by a large margin under Boris Johnson, who promised to complete Britain’s exit from the European Union.
Johnson’s tenure ended with the “partygate” scandal, and his successor, Liz Truss, faced a financial meltdown due to a disastrous economic budget. Truss’s brief tenure was famously compared to the shelf life of a head of lettuce. Sunak, who took office vowing to fix his predecessor’s mistakes, has struggled with low approval ratings despite his efforts.
Sunak has pledged to build more homes, ease taxes for the self-employed, and follow through on a controversial plan to deport some asylum-seekers to Rwanda.
Columnist Polly Toynbee of The Guardian notes that voters are motivated by anger toward the Conservatives, describing this election as having a “revenge feeling.” She believes the Conservatives have lost their image as a “dull, solid, conventional” party and become “radical revolutionaries” with catastrophic results.
Labour Poised for a Landslide Victory
Labour is likely to benefit from the Conservatives’ decline. This would be Labour’s first national election victory since Tony Blair’s win in 2005. The party is campaigning on a platform of “change” and promises to end the “chaos” of the Conservative government. Labour has pledged to improve relations with Europe, tax private school fees, and ban the sale of gas and diesel cars by 2030.
Under Starmer’s leadership, Labour has moved to the center, positioning itself as the party of economic responsibility, a message traditionally associated with the Conservatives.
Gabriel Pogrund, a political reporter at the Sunday Times, notes that Starmer’s strong poll numbers are more about a rejection of the Conservatives than enthusiasm for Starmer. “There’s not that much love or passion for him,” Pogrund says. “Starmer has tapped into sentiment against the Conservatives.”