India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on a two-day visit to Russia starting Monday, marking his first trip since Moscow’s deployment of troops to Ukraine.
During his visit, Prime Minister Modi will meet with President Vladimir Putin in the far eastern port city of Vladivostok. The two leaders last met in Russia in 2019.
Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior South Asia research fellow at Chatham House in the UK, observes that India is gradually distancing itself from forums where Russia and China hold significant influence. This shift is evident in India’s relatively subdued presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) last year and Modi’s decision not to attend this year’s SCO summit.
The two leaders also had a face-to-face meeting in September 2022 in Uzbekistan during an SCO summit. India has been a significant trading partner for Russia since the Cold War era, with its importance growing after the Kremlin’s military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022.
Under Modi’s leadership, India has refrained from criticizing Russia’s actions in Ukraine while emphasizing the importance of a peaceful resolution. The ongoing conflict has strained the relationship between the two long-standing allies and pushed Russia closer to China, India’s competitor.
Both China and India have emerged as key purchasers of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies, restricting Russian exports to most Western markets.
Modi notably skipped the recent SCO summit in Kazakhstan. The clash in June 2020 along the disputed China-India border, resulting in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops, significantly strained their already tense relationship. Tensions have persisted since then despite ongoing talks.
The tensions between India and Russia have influenced New Delhi’s perspective on Moscow. Analyst Theresa Fallon from the Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies highlighted India’s concerns about Russia’s growing ties with China in the strategic triangle. Despite this, Prime Minister Modi aims to maintain strong relations with Russia, a crucial trade partner and defense supplier for India.
With Western sanctions limiting Russian oil exports, India has become a significant buyer of Russian oil, accounting for over 40% of its imports. While India heavily relies on Russia for military equipment, recent disruptions in Moscow’s supply chain due to the conflict in Ukraine have prompted India to diversify its defense procurements by increasing purchases from the US, Israel, France, and Italy.
Defense cooperation remains a key focus, with 60% of India’s military equipment still originating from Russia. The delay in spare parts deliveries following the Ukraine invasion has prompted discussions on a military logistics agreement between the two countries.
India has maintained a neutral stance on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, advocating for negotiations to resolve the conflict. This stance has supported Putin’s efforts to counter Western influence on global affairs. Putin’s limited foreign travel due to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court could benefit from Modi’s visit, enhancing Putin’s international image. The visit also serves as a signal to Putin’s domestic audience that world leaders are engaging with him, countering perceptions of isolation.
India’s trade with Russia has surged significantly, reaching nearly $65 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24, driven by robust energy collaboration, according to India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra. During the 2023-24 fiscal year, imports from Russia amounted to $60 billion, while exports from India stood at $4 billion. The Indian financial year spans from April to March.
Efforts are being made by India to address the trade deficit with Russia by boosting its exports. Key exports from India to Russia include pharmaceutical products, telecommunications equipment, iron and steel, marine products, and machinery. Major imports from Russia include crude oil, petroleum products, coal, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, fertilizers, vegetable oil, gold, and silver.