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The World Health Organisation is warning that in Africa up to 190,000 people could die, and nearly a quarter of a billion will become infected with coronavirus.
The new research suggests that the spread of Covid-19 on the continent will be slower than in other regions, but could last for several years. The concern is that more people will die of diseases like malaria and TB as they avoid going to hospital.
We got the reaction of DR Ahmed Kalabi, CEO of the Lancet Group of Laboratories in East Africa.