African countries are projected to raise about $155 billion in long-term commercial debt in 2026, marking a 10% increase from the previous year, according to S&P Global Ratings.
These funds will largely go toward refinancing maturing obligations and addressing rising fiscal pressures, pushing total sovereign commercial debt to just over $1.2 trillion around half of the continent’s GDP by the end of the year.
A report reviewed by Reuters indicates that Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco are expected to lead issuance, reflecting the size of their economies and their strong access to global capital markets.
In South Africa, borrowing is largely aimed at refinancing existing debt and supporting government spending plans, while Egypt continues to fund infrastructure projects and stabilize its fiscal position.
Morocco, on the other hand, is leveraging its relatively solid fiscal standing to finance industrial expansion and development initiatives.
Leading borrowers and the regional context
The dominance of these countries highlights their economic scale, credit profiles, and the level of investor confidence they attract.
Favourable global financing conditions, currently at multi-year lows, are enabling governments to refinance foreign-currency debt at reduced costs.
At the same time, many African nations continue to depend on multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, with median annual borrowing among 27 rated countries standing at $1.5 billion lower than in other regions.
S&P warns that geopolitical tensions, including the effects of the Iran conflict, could disrupt borrowing plans or raise costs by impacting key oil transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil-importing nations such as Angola, which subsidize fuel, may face increased fiscal strain if energy prices rise.
Although financing conditions remain relatively supportive, analysts caution that rising debt levels and exposure to global shocks demand prudent fiscal management.
Governments across Africa are therefore navigating a delicate balance between securing commercial financing to drive growth and maintaining long-term debt sustainability amid an uncertain global environment.