Africa may experience a shortage of up to 86 million tonnes of refined fuel by 2040, a fresh report from the Africa Finance Corporation has indicated, noting that recent geopolitical tensions have revealed the continent’s heavy dependence on foreign energy supply channels.
Presented at a summit in Nairobi, the report points to Africa’s increasing reliance on imports, with over 70 percent of refined fuel coming from outside the continent. It further estimates that Africa brings in about $230 billion worth of key goods annually, including food, plastics, steel and fertiliser.
The AFC projects that Africa’s demand for imported fuel will grow from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes by 2040, highlighting a widening gap as local refining capacity fails to match rising consumption levels.
Supply chain weaknesses have been intensified by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially disruptions associated with the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil transport. This has raised concerns about Africa’s vulnerability to external shocks and critical fuel supply bottlenecks.
During the summit, Aliko Dangote revealed plans to extend refining capacity beyond West Africa, signalling a possible move toward regional energy independence. He indicated that he may establish a refinery in East Africa similar to his 650,000 barrels-per-day plant in Nigeria, provided governments offer adequate backing.
“I can give commitment to the two presidents that are here: if they will support the refinery, we will build the identical one that we have in Nigeria,” he said.
William Ruto, President of Kenya, used the occasion to urge a reassessment of Africa’s economic structure, stressing that reliance on foreign funding and imports weakens sustainable growth.
“Our ambitions will remain unrealised if we continue to depend on external capital whose primary interest is securing raw materials,” Ruto said, adding that Africa must transition from exporting raw materials to manufacturing finished goods locally.
The AFC report concludes that without substantial investment in refining capacity and industrial development, Africa’s fuel shortfall could worsen, leaving economies more vulnerable to global price swings and supply chain disruptions.