Nigeria is becoming an increasingly important alternative source of aviation fuel for Europe, stepping up as the US–Iran conflict disrupts traditional supply from the Middle East.
A recent shipment from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery arrived at the UK’s Milford Haven port, underscoring Europe’s growing reliance on West African refineries to maintain stability in energy supplies.
European dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for roughly 40% of its jet fuel, now affected by heightened geopolitical tensions and security restrictions, has caused benchmark northwest European jet fuel prices to surge to $1,744 per tonne, nearly double levels seen before the conflict.
Sources within the Dangote refinery in Lekki, Lagos, indicate that European countries are among the refinery’s primary customers, with jet fuel prices climbing sharply due to Middle Eastern instability. These insiders spoke on condition of anonymity.
Industry analysis suggests that the Nigerian delivery marks a notable shift in supply chains, as European buyers scramble for alternative sources amid anticipated disruptions from the last expected Middle Eastern shipment this week.
The Dangote refinery is quickly positioning itself as a key global pivot in aviation fuel supply. Europe’s move away from Russian imports, combined with declining domestic refining output, has made new suppliers essential.
Experts predict that West African refineries, including Dangote, will increasingly fill the gaps in European fuel needs. Lars van Wageningen, a research manager at Insights Global, highlighted that buyers are rerouting supplies to secure stable deliveries.
Matt Stanley, head of market engagement for EMEA and APAC at Kpler, noted that the system is undergoing realignment, with prices adjusting and shipments rerouted rather than a full-scale shortage occurring.
Consultants warn that the effects of higher jet fuel prices could reach airlines by April. Janiv Shah, Vice-President of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said that some countries may experience fuel shortages soon, and price increases are expected to ripple across the entire supply chain.
The UK government has confirmed that fuel shipments continue from India, the US, the Netherlands, and now Nigeria.
Since reaching full operational capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the Dangote refinery has exported twelve cargoes totaling 456,000 tonnes of refined fuels, including petrol, diesel, and jet fuel, to several West African countries such as Ghana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, and Togo, and has recently supplied aviation fuel to the UK.
Alhaji Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, mentioned that the refinery was nearing depletion of its aviation fuel and diesel stocks, though petrol supplies remain plentiful.
The shipment highlights Dangote’s expanding influence in the global energy market, as buyers look to dependable alternative suppliers amid geopolitical instability.
The refinery’s exports illustrate West Africa’s growing role as a strategic hub for fuel supply, helping to stabilize markets when conventional Middle Eastern routes are disrupted.