An increasing number of international shipping lines are steering clear of the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, choosing the longer passage around southern Africa instead, as rising tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global maritime operations.
Fresh figures cited by the Financial Times show that tanker volumes around the Cape of Good Hope climbed to a record 24 million deadweight tonnes during the week of April 13. Analysts say this reflects a significant shift in global shipping trends. The alternative route, which extends Asia–Europe journeys by at least two weeks, is being influenced by growing safety concerns after recent military confrontations involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
Pressure on the Suez Canal and Red Sea routes has persisted since 2023, when Yemen’s Houthi fighters began attacking commercial ships in reaction to the conflict in Gaza. Although a ceasefire last October briefly prompted some operators to reconsider using the shorter passage, renewed clashes in the Gulf have since reversed that momentum.
Leading shipping companies now indicate that a near-term return to the Suez Canal is unlikely. Hapag-Lloyd’s chief executive, Rolf Habben Jansen, revealed that initial cautious efforts to resume Red Sea voyages were abandoned due to escalating instability in the region.
He added that ongoing developments in the area are unlikely to support a swift shift back to the Suez route.
The rerouting has also pushed up freight charges. Data from logistics platform Freightos shows container prices on the Cape route rose from roughly $2,500 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) to about $3,000 in mid-March, before easing slightly to around $2,700 in recent weeks.
In addition to pricing changes, the diversion is boosting activity at ports across southern Africa. Research by Project44 reports that container volumes at major hubs such as Durban, Cape Town, and Walvis Bay have increased by 21 percent since late February, with the week of April 6 recording a 71 percent surge above pre-crisis levels.
Walvis Bay has particularly benefited from this shift. Industry officials point to its deep-water port and improved fuel supply capacity as major advantages. Ian Rosario, operations director for South Africa at Mediterranean Shipping Company, said the port is flourishing, partly due to its ability to provide different grades of marine fuel.
Other regional ports are also seeing higher traffic, though infrastructure limitations remain an issue. Port Elizabeth in South Africa has nearly doubled its bunker fuel volumes compared to early 2024, while Port Louis Harbour recorded a 42 percent jump in refuelling activity in March, handling 294 vessels.
Even with increased fuel expenses and longer travel times along the Cape route, shipping firms say clients are choosing dependability over speed. Industry experts believe that unless security in the Red Sea improves considerably, the diversion around Africa could become a long-term feature of global trade.