In Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa, it is hard to tell an election will happen on Monday that will decide the next five years of Africa’s second most populous country.
A few people can be spotted wearing T-shirts with the wheat symbol of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (PP), but there are no election posters anywhere.
The party held its only major campaign rally in the capital on Tuesday. It was over by 8:00 am and Abiy, who has ruled since 2018, did not appear.
Few doubt he will cruise back to power with a landslide victory for the PP — no doubt why it is not wasting time and money on campaigning. Online debates between candidates garner just a few hundred views.
Ethiopia’s 130 million citizens are used to votes that look pre-determined.
Almost every election since the overthrow of the brutal Derg dictatorship in 1991 has ended with one party winning 90 to 100 percent of seats in parliament, often amid allegations of fraud.
“I don’t think my vote can have a significant impact on politics,” said Tesfalem, a designer in the capital, saying he won’t participate.
“The voice of the people has never changed anything. And I don’t think it will this time either,” agreed Amanuel, a teacher in the Oromia region.
They gave only their first names for fear of reprisals in a political climate that has hardened of late.
Abiy emerged from the ranks of the previous ruling party to take control in 2018, and initially showed signs of a liberal streak — freeing jailed opposition members and journalists. He even won the Nobel Peace Prize for resolving tensions with neighbouring Eritrea.
But that gave way to mounting repression, particularly of the media.
Several international media groups have been refused entry for the election, and Ethiopia has slipped to 148th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders’ Press Freedom Index.
The irony is that the PP has a positive story to tell: under Abiy, Ethiopia’s economy has grown by more than seven percent per year, even if this is mostly the consequences of earlier reforms. It could even top 10 percent this year — among the highest rates in the world.
Abiy has taken steps to reduce state control of the economy, modernise the capital, and inaugurated Africa’s largest dam, which is expected to double electricity production.
– Violent disruptions –
But the country is also mired in conflict and tensions between its many ethnic groups.
Insurgents in Amhara and Oromia have threatened to disrupt the election, and no voting will take place in Tigray, where tensions are still high with the federal government over a civil war in 2020-2022 from which some one million people remain displaced.
In Lalibela, a city in Amhara famous for its rock-hewn churches, there have been political gatherings, said Beza, a local tour guide.
But outside the city, where the Fano insurgent group regularly clashes with federal forces, “it’s going to be difficult to vote,” he added.
Results are due on June 11.
Surprises are unlikely: the PP won 96 percent of seats in 2021, and is running uncontested in 64 of Ethiopia’s 547 constituencies this time.
There are some 40 opposition parties, but none are serious contenders. Even the largest, Ezema, will field candidates in less than 60 percent of seats, hoping to add to its current total of four MPs.
“Conducting elections under these conditions is essentially a ritual intended to show the international community that the government is elected every five years by the people,” Merera Gudina, president of the 11-strong Committee of Opposition Parties, told AFP.