The EU is increasingly tying enlargement to foreign policy and democratic alignment, including with a new gradual integration plan, leaving Serbia, Georgia and Turkey with the lowest scores and signs of backsliding.
The European Commission is putting growing weight on how closely candidate countries follow its foreign and security policy. In its annual assessment reports, Georgia, Turkey and Serbia stand out for their lack of alignment, which could limit their access to “gradual integration”.
As Russia’s war against Ukraine spills over into hybrid attacks on EU soil, Brussels is increasingly determined to use enlargement to bring its neighbours into line with its external action and democratic values. But not all candidates are on board.
“Common security and defence policy has become an increasingly important dimension in the accession process,” a senior EU official told reporters. “Particularly in the context we are at the moment, we believe that candidate countries already contribute to the Union’s security.”
The EU is working to deepen cooperation with candidate countries on defence, border management, cybersecurity and the protection of critical infrastructure. Alignment with sanctions against Russia is seen as a key indicator.
The Commission has openly labelled the four most advanced candidates “frontrunners”. Its reports point to a more nuanced picture for the rest, marked by a mix of stagnation and backsliding.
Three countries stand out for their low or very low foreign policy alignment: Turkey, Georgia and Serbia. All three are also showing signs of democratic backsliding.
“We have a few where [candidate countries] are backsliding, notably Turkey and Georgia,” a second senior EU official said. “Serbia has actually also a little bit of backsliding.”
Serbia
The country report points to negative trends in the so-called fundamentals, the negotiating cluster covering the rule of law, the judiciary and fundamental rights.
Belgrade remains a significant outlier. It has advanced considerable technical work in questions related to the internal market but is politically closer to the backsliders than to the frontrunners.
Serbia’s alignment with EU foreign policy stands at 63%. Its relations with China and Russia are deemed to contradict the EU position, notably its refusal to align with sanctions on Russia, Belarus and Iran.
For Brussels, the Student List’s recent election victory raises hopes of a reset. The movement ousted Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party after 14 years in power, on an anti-corruption platform calling for institutional reforms.
“This is an opportunity to advance this whole process of accession. And we’re ready to engage with the incumbent government and help them to translate the stated priorities, particularly in the areas of fundamentals, into concrete reforms,” the first official said.
Another key point of contention is the normalisation of relations with Kosovo. Belgrade’s new government is unlikely to recognise it, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said at the Euronews Enlargement Summit on Tuesday.
Georgia
EU officials call Georgia a “very sad story”, as the country slides further into democratic backsliding and curbs fundamental rights. In March, the EU suspended visa-free travel for holders of Georgian diplomatic, service and official passports.
Brussels considers Tbilisi a candidate in name only, as it has made no progress on the nine steps set out when it was granted candidate status. In 2024, the Georgian government said it would not pursue accession talks until 2028.
At the Euronews summit on Tuesday, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze could not explain how Tbilisi intends to normalise relations with the EU. He accused the Commission of double standards and political games, while refusing to back down on controversial legislation.
“There is no prospect of changing this unless the Georgian authorities urgently change course. And this really requires a renewed commitment to the fundamental principles of democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights. We, of course, remain committed to the European aspirations of the Georgian people,” the second senior EU official said.
Turkey
For the Commission, Turkey is another clear case of democratic backsliding, and the only candidate where foreign policy alignment is rated “very low”.
At the same time, the EU executive notes that Ankara has stepped up cooperation in areas where interests converge with the bloc: trade, migration, regional security and connectivity.
Turkey is a critical gateway for the Middle Corridor, the transport route the EU is investing heavily in to link Europe with Central Asia while avoiding Russia to the north and the Suez Canal to the south.
“The circumvention of EU sanctions against Russia remains important. Turkey has made some progress, but should make more progress,” the second official said.
But one of the main obstacles to better relations with Brussels, and to unfreezing accession talks, remains the occupation of Northern Cyprus.
Gradual integration
Foreign policy alignment could matter even more as the EU plans to reform how it rewards candidates as they advance, making benefits depend on strategic alignment.
The aim is to offer gradual access to the EU internal market and opportunities for citizens through programmes such as Erasmus+, the end of roaming charges and inclusion in the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA).
Early next year, the Commission will launch a dedicated dialogue with candidate countries to develop tailor-made measures for gradual integration.
“What is also important is that this is not an offer that comes without conditions. It remains merit-based, conditional and reversible. And what we basically expect from our partners is progressive alignment with EU rules and strategic priorities,” the second official added.