Chinese imports of Russian crude oil are expected to hit fresh record levels in February after three months of rising volumes, as independent refiners take advantage of steep discounts while India sharply cuts its own purchases.
The surge is based on ship‑tracking and industry data showing Russian shipments into China could total just over 2.08 million barrels per day in February, up from about 1.7 million bpd in January.
Since late last year, China has overtaken India as Moscow’s biggest buyer of seaborne crude after Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict and pressure to secure a U.S. trade deal led New Delhi to reduce its imports to multi‑year lows.
India’s Russian oil intake is now set to fall further, to around 1.159 million bpd this month.
The shift has pushed Russian crude prices sharply below the international benchmark, with grades like Urals selling at $9–$11 a barrel under ICE Brent for China‑bound cargoes the lowest discounts seen in years.
These barrels, along with other Russian grades such as Sokol, Varandey and the ESPO blend from the Far East, are increasingly competing against other suppliers.
Independent Chinese refiners, known as “teapots,” are among the main buyers of this discounted Russian oil.
Traders say Russian crude has become more attractive than alternatives like Iranian oil, particularly amid worries about potential U.S. military action in the Middle East, which has dampened interest in Iranian supplies.
Meanwhile, Iranian crude shipments to China often rebranded to avoid sanctions have declined from January levels, reflecting the broader shift toward Russian barrels.