The once “shadow war” between Israel and Iran exploded into full-blown conflict on June 13, 2025—triggering jitters in global markets and sending shockwaves all the way to Ghana’s shores. Analysis from the Ghana International Trade & Finance Conference (GITFiC) warn that the fallout could be swift and severe, but they also offer a bold playbook to turn crisis into opportunity. Here’s the inside scoop from GITFiC’s latest analysis.
1. A Sudden Storm: From “Operation Rising Lion” to Global Ripples
On June 13, Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” unleashed pre-emptive strikes on key Iranian sites—nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and military bases—cited as an urgent response to perceived nuclear threats. Iran fired back with missile and drone barrages on Israeli targets, inflicting significant casualties on both sides
2. Ghana’s Vulnerability Spotlighted: Why This Matters to Us
- Fuel Dependence on a Knife’s Edge: As a net importer of refined petroleum, Ghana faces an almost instantaneous pass-through of surging international fuel prices to local pump prices. Limited strategic reserves intensify this squeeze.
- Inflation and Borrowing Blues: Higher oil costs stoke global inflation, prompting major central banks to hold or raise rates.
- Fiscal Juggle Under Scrutiny: With Ghana in an IMF-supported consolidation program, unexpected fuel subsidies or revenue shortfalls could derail budget targets, swell public debt, and spook investors. The recent postponement of the GH¢1 fuel levy already signals how sensitive our fiscal space is to energy shocks.
- Supply Chains and Exports in the Crossfire: Even if Ghana’s direct trade with Israel or Iran is minimal, a wider conflict can hike global freight costs, lengthen transit times, and choke off inputs our industries need. Prolonged global slowdown could sap demand for gold, cocoa, and oil—key export earners—squeezing foreign exchange reserves further.
3. Crisis Mode: Immediate “Shock Absorbers”
GITFiC urges swift, targeted moves—eschewing broad subsidies that could blow fiscal holes:
- Stockpile Strategically: Build robust reserves of crude oil and refined products at BOST to buy time when prices spike. Transparent management is critical to prevent waste and ensure availability when Ghana needs it most.
- Shield the Vulnerable: Instead of universal fuel handouts, tap existing safety nets (e.g., LEAP) for cash transfers or transport fare subsidies to low-income households
- Defend the Cedi: The Bank of Ghana must maintain firm monetary policy, possibly leveraging gold reserves via programs like GOLDBOD to back the currency. Careful FX interventions can smooth volatility without depleting vital reserves.
- Speak Straight to Citizens: Regular press briefings and transparent data-sharing from the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Ghana, National Petroleum Authority, and COPEC to build trust. Explaining the war’s impact and policy logic head-on prevents rumors and panic.
4. Beyond the Firefighting: Building Lasting Resilience
GITFiC’s mid- to long-term game plan turns vulnerabilities into strengths:
- Revive Tema Oil Refinery (TOR): Getting TOR fully operational is non-negotiable. A clear, time-bound revival plan—debt restructuring, crude supply contracts, facility upgrades, and private-sector partnerships
- Diversify Our Energy Mix: Fast-track the National Energy Transition Framework. Ramp up solar, wind, and hydro projects, and harness domestic gas (e.g., Atuabo Train Two, LNG facility at Tema, Takoradi–Tema pipeline).
- Strengthen Food Security: Heavy investment in agriculture—irrigation schemes, improved seeds/fertilizers, market access, and support for initiatives like “Feed Ghana”—reduces import bills and tames food inflation worsened by fuel cost spikes.
- Fiscal Smarts & Debt Discipline: Digitalize tax administration, prioritize high-impact spending, and avoid non-essential outlays
5. Call to Action: Collaboration Is Key
The GITFiC underscores the stakes: “The Israel-Iran War poses a formidable test for Ghana’s economic stability. But with swift crisis measures and bold structural reforms, we can not only weather the storm but emerge stronger”. GITFiC urges government agencies, private sector champions, and civil society to unite behind this roadmap—securing technical and financial backing from international partners to turn plans into reality.
6. Turning Tension into Tenacity
Yes, global turmoil is unnerving. But Ghana’s response can be decisive: smart fuel reserves, pinpointed social support, a revived refinery, a green energy pivot, robust farming, fiscal prudence, and export innovation. By acting fast today, Ghana can transform shock into opportunity—reinforcing our economy against any future tempest.
To read the full analysis and the GITFiC recommendations, download the document below:
Credit: Isaac Osei Owusu, Lead Analyst, Research, Advocacy, and Policy – GITFiC