Ghana’s economic performance has shown marked improvement in recent months, with inflation dropping sharply and foreign reserves strengthening, though increasing global uncertainties may pose challenges for the country’s monetary policy, according to Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama.
Addressing the opening of the 129th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Accra, Dr. Asiama highlighted that recent economic indicators suggest a faster-than-expected stabilisation. He cautioned, however, that emerging international risks would require careful policy decisions to ensure the gains are sustained.
Headline inflation fell to 3.3 percent in February, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of decline and bringing the rate below the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range.
“These figures, not long ago, would have been considered aspirational,” Dr. Asiama remarked, reflecting on the recent improvements in key economic measures.
The governor also reported a rise in Ghana’s foreign currency reserves, which now stand at roughly $14.5 billion, representing about 5.8 months of import cover. This is an increase from approximately $13.8 billion recorded during the MPC’s previous meeting in January.
Economic activity is also gaining momentum, with the Composite Index of Economic Activity expanding 8.4 percent year-on-year at the start of 2026. Dr. Asiama attributed this growth to stronger bank credit, higher industrial output, increased trade activity, and rising household consumption.
Consumer and business confidence improved in February as inflation eased, reflecting a gradual strengthening of economic sentiment across the country.
Despite these positive trends, the governor warned that the global environment had grown more uncertain since January. He pointed to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted key shipping and energy routes and contributed to heightened volatility in international oil markets.
Sustained rises in oil prices could increase the risk of imported inflation for Ghana, potentially forcing the central bank to adopt tighter monetary measures and affecting domestic financial conditions.
Dr. Asiama noted that while geopolitical tensions often push gold prices higher benefiting Ghana’s trade balance the broader external shocks remain inflationary in nature.
He also highlighted the recently announced Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Programme (GANRAP), which aims to raise international reserves to 15 months of import cover by 2028, up from the current level of about 5.8 months.
The programme is expected to bolster macroeconomic resilience but may also affect liquidity and the central bank’s balance sheet, considerations that policymakers must factor into monetary policy decisions.
Dr. Asiama added that the banking sector remains sound, profitable, and well-capitalised, with significant improvements in asset quality over the past year. This robustness will help ensure that adjustments in policy rates effectively influence credit conditions for households and businesses.
He emphasised that the MPC faces a more complex task than earlier in the year, balancing strong domestic economic progress against mounting external pressures.
“The question for this Committee is not whether conditions have improved. They clearly have, across the board,” Dr. Asiama said. “The challenge is how to respond to these improvements when the factors that supported them are under strain.”
He concluded by stressing that central banking requires not only reacting to crises but also maintaining the gains achieved through disciplined policy over the long term.