GITFiC Opinion-Poll for Elections 2020 – A 6%-11% win for the Incumbent
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GITFiC OPINION-POLL PREDICTION
(6% to 11% of the 2016 Percentage Differential win of 9.2%)
59,074.2 to 108,302.7 + 9.2% VOTES for the Incumbent
H.E Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo won the 2016 presidential elections based on 984,570 votes difference. This figure represented a 9.2% votes difference between him and the then incumbent H.E John Dramani Mahama.
H.E John Dramani Mahama won the 2012 presidential elections based on 325,863 votes difference. This figure represented a 3% votes difference between him and the then opposition leader Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
H.E John Evan Fiifi Atta-Mills won the 2008 presidential elections based on 40,586 votes difference. This figure signified a 0.4% votes difference between him and the then opposition leader Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
These voting patterns speak volumes about the candidature of Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo. Prior to becoming president in 2017, Nana Akufo-Addo had become a very popular politician in Ghana which culminated in his victory with such wide vote margins. For him to be able to make a come-back from a three percent electoral vote deficit in 2012 to win the 2016 elections with a clear 9.2% vote difference confirms our STANCE and PREDICTION of victory for the incumbent.
He did this with convincing promises he has succeeded in honouring in his first term of office This we believe gives him a lead as an incumbent against the now opposition leader, H.E John Dramani Mahama, considering the 2008 and 2012 presidential election results.
We predict a win for H.E Nana Akufo-Addo in the up-coming 2020 elections, because there would be a clear appreciation of votes from 6% to 11% of the vote-percentage difference in the 2016 elections accumulating and striking the votes and percentages from 2008 to 2012 even in opposition. Thus; 59,074.2 to 108,302.7 of 984,570 vote’s difference is to be expected in favor of the incumbent in the 2020 elections.
Our analysis is largely based on the extent of FULFILLMENT OF PROMISES, the PHYSICAL EVIDENCE of FULFILLED PROMISES, the general mood of the country, comments from the private sector, general mood of the business community, students, marketers, traders, financial sector operators, development partners, expatriates, etc.
In our candid opinion, the general expectations of Ghanaians have been met within the three and a half years of the H.E Nana Akufo-Addo led administration. See below;
- Free SHS (CHECKED! with empirical evidence on the ground)
- 6 new regions (CHECKED! with empirical evidence on the ground)
- Peaceful Dagbon (CHECKED! with empirical evidence on the ground)
- Restoration of Teaching & Nursing Training Allowance (CHECKED! sufficiently provided with empirical evidence on the ground)
- 1District 1Factory (CHECKED! sufficiently provided with empirical evidence on the ground)
- Planting for food and jobs (CHECKED! with empirical evidence on the ground and data on FOOD SURPLUS)
- Establishment of VW assembling Plant (CHECKED! with empirical evidence on the ground)
- 1District 1Ambulance (CHECKED sufficiently provided with empirical evidence on the ground)
- Japan Motors assembling Plant (First hand information from Mr. Kalmoni himself. Will be ready in 6 months in Tema)
- Free Water (CHECKED! with empirical evidence on the ground)
- Free electricity (CHECKED! sufficiently provided with empirical evidence on the ground)
- NABCO (CHECKED! sufficiently provided with empirical evidence on the ground)
- Single digit inflation (CHECKED! with empirical evidence on the ground and data)
- Relative stability in the Macro and Micro Economic fundamentals (CHECKED! Sufficiently provided with empirical evidence on the ground)
- 1 village 1 Dam (CHECKED! sufficiently provided with empirical evidence on the ground)
The above FACT-CHECKED achievements cut across the divide and are Social-Centered. We like to term this; ‘’The People’s-Expectations-Achievements’’ (TPEA)
The following explains the reasons that led to our prediction:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Ghana saw an increase over the past three years with an estimated 8.143% in 2017 compared to 3.44% in 2016. 2018 and 2019 also saw marginal growth of 6.23% and 6.478% respectively. However, the outbreak of Covid-19 reduced estimated GDP growth of 6.8% to just 2.6% in 2020.
Ghana’s inflation rate has seen a drastic reduction from 17.45% in 2016 to 10.15 as at October 2020. THESE ARE VERIFIABLE FACTS from the Ghana Statistical Department.
There has been some significant marginal growth of Ghana’s GDP despite impediments which showed up on yearly basis. At the same time, we have also seen the lifting of the ban on public sector employment, because the current government has ended the IMF structural adjustment Policy, which adversely affected Ghanaians in several ways and stalled development in some sectors of the economy.
Before the COVID-19 Pandemic, Ghana was projected to grow its economy to 6.8%, which made Ghana the third fastest growing economy on the continent, standing toe to toe with Ethiopia and Rwanda.
Ghana has positioned herself as a destination in West Africa for foreign investment over the past three years, and this has yielded some significant results. Currently, China has the highest number of investment registered with Ghanaian institutions, followed by India, the United Kingdom, South Africa, Turkey, Mauritania and France. If given more years to run the economy by this same administration, I project better figures in terms of FDIs, the MORE REASON WHY FOUR MORE FOR NANA TO DO MORE IS EMINENT AND A NO JOKE!
The Financial Cleanup was apt and very timely, because it created a sustainable industry, shored up the MCR of banks operating in Ghana, and strengthened its asserts base. This also gave the banks more muscles to take up large projects and to finance both domestic and international transactions including giving out syndicate loans.
Like it or not, the financial cleanup was a good move by this administration because it separated the chaff from the wheat, further removed bad Corporate Governance Practices from the banks, and gave a solid credibility to the surviving banks. Before this government took control of the economy, our financial sector faced several distresses. There were serious issues with solvency, liquidity and quality of assets. I have in the past had some discussions with friends who were in top management position in some of the collapsed banks, and they admitted to some operational failures and human capital errors. In fact, the owner and CEO of UT Bank, Mr. Prince Kofi Amoabeng, recently admitted to stealing and corruption from some staff of his bank and attributed the collapse of the bank to some of these menaces.
In order for the Bank of Ghana to correct these anomalies, we needed a strong executive arm of government, which could take the bull by the horn and take some stringent decisions to protect the interest of depositors, knowing very well the system would fight back. This current government led by Nana Akufo-Addo did just that. The entire financial architecture of the country saw some changes with competent individuals like Dr. Addisson, Hon. Ken Ofori Atta, Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia, Hon. Yaw Osafo-Maafo and the entire Economic Management Team taking the lead in the fight.
The issue of favoritism, ethnicity, friends and family were totally ignored and Ghana was put first. The Universal banks were forced to increase their MCR to GHS400M (approximately 77.4M USD). This process also saw some mergers and acquisitions in order to meet the MCR to stay in business.
All these achievements made my confidence in the Akufo-Addo government grow tremendously and gave me hope as a young person.
Fellow Ghanaians, in all of these, we need consistency. A change in administration now has the tendency to deflate this progress and reverse the economy some 15 years back.
Four More for Nana to do More is not just a slogan but a MUST!, and the structures of our country must aide to make this happen!
Fellow countrymen, this government have used resources from GAT to recapitalize two significant and important state owned commercial banks namely, the Agricultural Development Bank (adb) and the National Investment Bank (NIB). The government has also sought the assistance of the Bretton Woods Institutions to support the about-to-be created Ghana Development Bank (GDB). These are significant successes, strategically formulated to advance the growth of the economy in the coming years and put the country on the path to a lasting economic freedom. CHANGING THIS GOVERNMENT NOW WILL SEND US BACK MANY YEARS!
I have come to believe that it takes pure competence, dedication and the love of country for such patriotic developmental moves. As an Nkrumahist, I am confident that our country is on the right path.
Finally, the recapitalization process is made up of a small number of well-capitalized banks. Following this apt exercise, all the key financial sound indicators in terms of solvency, liquidity, efficiency and asset quality have improved. The provision of capital buffers by banks under the Basel II and III framework has also ensured that banks are more resilient to shocks now and in the future. The financial fundamentals are good and this will translate into a MILK & HONEY economy as expected and projected right after the pandemic, which slowed down the process.
Fellow Ghanaians, the achievements above are a few of the numerous projects, programs and policies being undertaken by the current administration, and any sound minded person would ask: WHAT WOULD MAKE US WANT TO CHANGE GOVERNMENT AT THIS CRUCIAL DEVELOPING MOMENTS IN THE LIFE & HISTORY OF OUR DEAR NATION?
- Out of a total number of 19,146 infrastructure, 10,408 are at the verge of completion whilst 8,738 are on going
- 612 boreholes were constructed in various communities
- Road Interchanges were constructed at Tamale, Pokuase, Tema and Obetsebi Lamptey Circle
- 250 boreholes constructed in Upper West Region
- 109,000 toilets built nationwide
- 5,000 communities cleared of open defecation
- 276 market sheds completed, 174 almost completed
- 1,209 housing projects initiated, 32 of it completed
- 2 public housing projects completed
- 68 sports projects undertaken, 12 completed
- 29 Astro turfs being built
- The building of railway university in Sekondi completed
- 2,699 projects in the education sector completed
- 29 E-blocks completed
There are a total of 593 infrastructure development under agriculture with 433 completed and 140 ongoing. The major projects are the Planting for food and jobs and Rearing for food and jobs. The One District One Factory policy also has projects that promote agriculture by producing value-added foods, which are affordable and of a high quality. This has placed Ghana in the 59th position among 113 countries in the Global Index which considers affordability, availability and quality of foods.
Agriculture contributes 19.7% to Ghana’s current GDP, accounting for over 30% of export earnings and serves as a major source of inputs to our manufacturing industry. In 2019, 33.5% of the labor force in Ghana were absorbed by the agricultural sector. Agriculture is the second largest employer in the economy but the smallest sector in comparison to services and industry. The agricultural sector grew from 2.9% in 2016 to 6.1% in 2017, recorded a growth of 4.8 in 2018, and is projected to grow at 6.9% at the end of 2020.
For a very long time now, Ghana has recorded consistent trade surplus in terms of balance of trade. We are exporting Agricultural produce to neighboring countries and the evidence is there for all to see.
Fellow countrymen, with these tremendous achievements chalked within these three years in the Agricultural Sector, WHAT WOULD MAKE US WANT TO CHANGE GOVERNMENT AT THIS CRUCIAL ACCELERATING MOMENTS IN THE LIFE & HISTORY OF OUR DEAR NATION?
The total projects done in the education sector are 3,239 with 1,587 completed while 1,652 are ongoing and at various stages of completion. The projects include construction of Ghana Education Staff Development Institute, school blocks in the various districts, libraries, classroom & administration blocks, dormitories, etc.
To improve access, equity and quality of students in secondary schools, the Free SHS program was introduced. This policy has enrolled a total of 794,899 students in its two years of existence and continues to do more. The WAEC results have seen some excellent improvements and goes to testify to the fact that, the Free SHS education policy was of a quality and gave full access to both the rich and poor in our society. It has also employed 8,872 teachers to ensure the effectiveness of the program due to the inception of the double track system, and cost government about GHC 2 billion as at June 2020.
The school feeding program, which provides children in public schools with hot, nutritious meal prepared from locally produced foodstuffs, is on course and delivering in that regard.
See below per available statistics, data and as visible on the ground; all these projects have been completed or ongoing in the various districts in Ghana and at various stages;
- Free SHS Education programme (Over 1.2 million beneficiaries and 400,000 new enrolment)
- The increment of student capitation grant from GHS 4.5 to GHS10 per student per head for basic schools
- The percentage of trained teachers has improved to 88% at the primary level from 78%
- The pupil to trained teacher ratio has improved to 1:37 at the kindergarten level and 1:33 at the primary level in 2019 which was 1:52 at the kindergarten and 1:43 at primary level in 2016
- Teacher recruitment is now done at the regional level to ensure proper decentralization
- A total of 66,357 teaching and non-teaching staff in the pre-tertiary sector as at the end of 2019 have been employed
- Financial clearance has been obtained to recruit an additional 27,367 teaching and non-staff, comprising 16,500 newly qualified teachers, 6,500 graduate teachers, 3,232 replacement staff and 1,135 non-teaching staff. This brings the total to a staggering 93, 724 employed by the end of this year for pre-tertiary. At the tertiary level, we have since 2017 recruited a total of 6,176 staff.
- Increased minimum qualification for teaching at any of our basic schools is now first degree
- The NPP government has restored teacher training allowance, book and research allowance and Arabic volunteer allowance.
- Teacher trainees from Colleges of Education now earn a full degree and no longer need to take study leave before getting a Bachelor’s degree.
- Basic education now includes vocational, agricultural and technical schools.
Fellow Ghanaians, the above are few out of the numerous projects, programs and policies being undertaken by this current administration and any sound minded person would ask; WHAT WOULD MAKE US WANT TO CHANGE GOVERNMENT AT THIS CRUCIAL ACCELERATING MOMENTS IN THE LIFE & HISTORY OF OUR DEAR NATION?
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION
The Vice President, Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia, has led a massive digitization agenda, which has improved science, technology and innovation. The achievements include the Paperless System at the Ports, the use of medical drones to deliver medical care needs to people in emergencies, Digital Property Addressing System, Zipline technology, Mobile Money Payment Interoperability, the Integrated ICT system for Microfinance and Small Loans Centre, Digitization of DVLA, and the issuance of the National ID.
All these platforms aim to promote transparency and efficiency in the Economy by making full utilization of technology and innovation.
This is a short list of achievements by the government under the Science, Technology, and Innovation sector of our Economy over the last 3years. I absolutely believe that it takes a government with total foresight and dedication to drive such an agenda. The Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation definitely has a tall list of achievements.
Fellow Ghanaians, so I ask again, WHAT WOULD MAKE US WANT TO CHANGE GOVERNMENT AT THIS CRUCIAL ACCELERATING MOMENTS IN THE LIFE & HISTORY OF OUR DEAR NATION?
TOURISM & CULTURE
The major achievements of the government in tourism and culture is the Year of Return initiative, which brought up to 1.5 million tourists, including politicians, celebrities and world leaders. The tourism sector recorded a growth of 18% with an estimated revenue of 1.9 billion dollars. Though this figure has been discredited in some instances, the truth is that, the YEAR OF RETURN project made some significant gains for the country and projected the country to record-time tourism potentials.
Some few direct achievements I could recollect as at the time of putting together this piece of research include:
- The Commencement of work on the Marine Drive Tourism Investment Project in 2019,
- The back to Africa heritage which took place in early 2018,
- The campaign towards the patronization of made in Ghana goods.
- The reopening of the Hotel Hospitality and Catering Training Institute in July 2018
- Ghana ranking 115th in the overall travel and tour competitive index in 2019
Ladies and Gentlemen, WHAT WOULD MAKE US WANT TO CHANGE GOVERNMENT AT THIS CRUCIAL ACCELERATING MOMENTS IN THE LIFE & HISTORY OF OUR DEAR NATION
There are a total of 844 projects in this sector with 478 completed and 366 ongoing. We have ambulances in almost all the constituencies in Ghana and these can be physically seen parked at the hospitals and Health Centers in the districts.
Government has also provided packages for health systems to control the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. These include exemption of taxes on the three month salaries of frontline health workers with 50% additional allowance. At the last COVID-19 briefing by H.E the President, he informed of the provision of an insurance package of GHC350,000 and medical materials needed to treat patients in the various Covid-10 health facilities.
Below are a list of some of the achievements:
- Introduction of drone delivery technology at Omenako & Mampong into our healthcare system to deliver emergency supplies and drugs to less accessible areas.
- Restoration of nursing training allowances
- Reducing cost of nursing training admission forms from GH¢ 160 to GH¢ 100
- Expansion of Ambulance Services with 275 ambulances expected
- Approval and financial clearance were given to employ 54,892 health professionals in 2019
- Malaria case fatality rate for children under five years of age has dropped significantly by 68.8 percent with malaria death rates dropping from 32 deaths per 10,000 population to 10 deaths per 10,000;
- 243 Community Health Planning and Services (CHPS) compounds completed and 186 still ongoing; four District hospitals completed
- 36 maternity blocks completed and 19 ongoing, four completed polyclinics with three more underway. 68 Staff accommodation completed with 43 more underway. One theatre block construction underway
- Institutional stillbirth rate, which has reduced from the 17 deaths per 1,000 total births in 2016 to 12.2 deaths per 1,000 total births. This represents a reduction of 28.2 percent within the three-year period of this administration
- Government targeted reducing the institutional maternal mortality ratio from 151 in 2016 to 138 (by the end of 2020) maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. The maternal mortality ratio, however, dropped by 22.5 percent to 117 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, thereby exceeding the set target.
- National Ambulance service equipped with state-of-the-art ambulances in every constituency
Fellow Ghanaians, I ask again, WHAT WOULD MAKE US WANT TO CHANGE GOVERNMENT AT THIS CRUCIAL ACCELERATING MOMENTS IN THE LIFE & HISTORY OF OUR DEAR NATION?
Below is a professional data and statistics on the subject:
Ghana’s performance on the Africa’s infrastructural development index
Please do not send us 15 years back. My humble plea is that we allow the Akufu-Addo government to complete its full eight-year term, and allow for a comparative analysis between the eight years of the NDC under Mills and Mahama and eight years of the NPP under Akufo-Addo, and this includes my beloved CONVENTION PEOPLE’S PARTY.
Source: Editorial – GITFIConline.com