Global economy unlikely to benefit from falling dollar

A declining dollar usually boosts trade and the resilience of the global economy and helps to reduce trade imbalances — but its drop since the start of the pandemic crisis is unlikely to do so. This is in part because the particular confluence of global currency movements has created winners and losers, and also because the spread of the virus itself is hindering the ability of economies to adjust. Since the start of June the dollar has undergone a sudden reversal in popularity among investors who have shifted from viewing it as the global haven to an unfashionable bet. 

The dollar index has fallen more than 9 per cent since its crisis-induced peak in March. Reasons for holding dollars have dwindled rapidly, according to many currency analysts. US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have eroded the differential between the US and other developed economies as part of its response to the Covid-19 crisis.

Meanwhile the US government’s failure to keep coronavirus under control as effectively as leading European and Asian governments and EU leaders’ €750bn European Recovery Fund to rebuild the continent’s economy after the pandemic has fuelled an upswing in confidence about the outlook for the eurozone and the euro. “The dollar has transitioned into a bear market. It’s not going to happen in the next few weeks but in over the course of the next five years we think that the dollar could weaken as much as 15 to 20 per cent against a basket of its peers,” said Aaron Hurd, a senior portfolio manager at State Street Global Advisors. 

Analysts at JPMorgan said: “Relative growth rather than higher US rates is likely to be the dominant driver of the dollar . . . High infections in the US . . . and the political landscape is still likely to be a net drag on the dollar.”  Among advanced economies, the fall in the dollar is likely to have beneficial global effects — so long as it does not develop into a rout. For decades the US has run persistent deficits in trade and on its current account and a weaker currency improves the competitiveness of US exports while making imports from other advanced economies more expensive. 

Alongside any boost to domestic demand that the EU’s recovery fund can generate, the net effect should be a more balanced global economy at a higher level of demand, although the effects might not be large if the US continues to have more access to cheap finance than others. But not every part of the global economy is experiencing the dollar’s decline. The dollar index measures the value of the US currency against a basket of advanced economy currencies, dominated by the euro. The eurozone’s currency accounts for 57.6 per cent of the weight in the currency basket, and is joined by the yen, sterling, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc.

But the index does not include any emerging economies’ currencies, and the greenback has gained in value against most of them since the pandemic first emerged. The dollar has gained nearly 25 per cent against the Brazilian real since March, while it is more than 10 per cent stronger against the Mexican peso and the Russian rouble.

Source: Financial Times