Fresh instability could be emerging in global oil markets following the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lose one of its key members, the United Arab Emirates, at a time when supply remains fragile and demand is softening.
Authorities in Abu Dhabi announced on April 28, 2026, that the country will withdraw from OPEC starting May 1, explaining that the move is intended to give it more freedom to adjust output in line with market realities and its long-term energy plans.
The decision comes at a sensitive moment, as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz which carries about 20% of global oil and LNG continue to face disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, increasing uncertainty around supply flows.
In a statement, the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure noted that short-term instability, including disturbances in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, is shaping supply conditions, even though longer-term projections still point to steady growth in global energy demand.
“A resilient global energy system requires flexible, dependable, and affordable supply,” the statement said, adding that the UAE has made investments to respond efficiently to changing demand while maintaining stability, affordability, and sustainability.
The departure further strains an already pressured market. The OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia, has been implementing production cuts since mid-2023 to support prices, but results have been limited, with Brent crude still below earlier peaks.
Another challenge lies in sluggish demand. Growth in global oil consumption slowed to around 0.65 million barrels per day in 2025 and is projected to remain under 1 million bpd in 2026, largely due to weaker demand from China and broader economic pressures.
Meanwhile, supply continues to expand. Global output is expected to rise by about 2.4 million barrels per day, driven mainly by producers outside OPEC such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, gradually reducing OPEC+’s influence over pricing.
Impact shifts toward Africa’s oil-dependent economies
For African oil producers including Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, and Libya, the consequences are becoming more pronounced.
These countries rely heavily on oil revenues, with hydrocarbons forming a large share of exports and government income.
In Nigeria, crude exports remain a key source of foreign exchange, while Angola depends on oil for most of its export earnings. Algeria and Libya face similar reliance, leaving their economies highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices.
The UAE’s departure introduces additional uncertainty. As a low-cost producer with significant capacity, its exit weakens coordinated supply control and raises the likelihood of intensified competition among producers.
Geopolitical risk analyst Isa Yusibov described the situation as the beginning of a “market share battle,” suggesting that as the UAE increases output by an additional 1.5 million barrels per day, other countries such as Iraq and Kuwait may feel pressured to exceed their quotas to sustain revenues, potentially driving prices down over time.
This comes as African producers already contend with structural challenges such as higher extraction costs, aging oil infrastructure, and limited upstream investment.
With cohesion within OPEC+ weakening and output from non-members rising, African exporters are increasingly exposed to a market driven more by volatility than coordinated control.
Experts warn this could lead to tighter government finances, reduced fiscal flexibility, and increased pressure on local currencies across oil-dependent economies.