Tensions in the Middle East are placing fresh strain on global fertiliser supply chains, driving prices upward from around $500 to over $700 per tonne and raising renewed concerns about food security in Africa and other import-reliant regions.
Experts note that unrest around the Strait of Hormuz a key corridor for global energy and commodity transport is disrupting the movement of essential agricultural inputs, worsening already fragile supply conditions. This uncertainty is expected to push food inflation higher while tightening supplies of staples such as maize, rice, and wheat.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that a mere 10% drop in fertiliser availability could cut maize, rice, and wheat production in sub-Saharan Africa by as much as 25%, while also potentially driving food inflation up by 8% across the region.
Policy analyst Ayodele Ayowole noted that “the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is already affecting global supply chains, with fertiliser markets among the most impacted.”
Key inputs such as ammonia, urea, phosphate, and sulphur are among the most affected materials, all of which are vital for agricultural productivity. Since about 80% of fertiliser used in sub-Saharan Africa is imported, the region remains highly vulnerable to external disruptions, especially as shipping costs, financing constraints, and logistics challenges continue to increase landed prices.
Additional pressure has come from export restrictions imposed by China, one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers, which has contributed to a reported 40% rise in urea prices and intensified competition for limited global supply.
Agricultural policy analyst Martin Fregene explained that “fertiliser security is directly linked to food security, which ultimately underpins economic and social stability.”
Smallholder farmers are bearing the brunt of the impact, as they account for nearly 70% of food production in sub-Saharan Africa but often lack the financial capacity to stockpile inputs or hedge against price volatility.
A report by BusinessDay cautioned that prolonged tensions linked to the Iran conflict could further amplify fertiliser price swings and worsen food inflation. This warning followed Iran’s decision to ban exports of food and agricultural goods amid escalating geopolitical tensions with Israel and the United States.
Trade records from the UN COMTRADE show that Iran exported about $169.11 million worth of fertilisers to Nigeria in 2022. Nigeria itself imported roughly 560,000 metric tonnes in 2025, with demand expected to rise further in 2026 as domestic consumption grows.
In response, policy analysts are encouraging African governments to build up fertiliser reserves, expand farmer subsidy programmes, and strengthen regional coordination to reduce exposure to global shocks.
Recent analysis cited by Al Jazeera suggests that long-term resilience will depend on improved market intelligence, coordinated purchasing strategies, and stronger partnerships with major producers such as Morocco and Nigeria.
One assessment further emphasised that real-time monitoring of trade flows, shipping routes, and pricing trends could help governments anticipate disruptions, while regional stockpiles may help stabilise supply during periods of shortage.