Nigeria recorded crude oil exports of 55.39 million barrels within the first two months of 2026, reflecting a growing gap between increasing export activity and ongoing shortages in domestic crude supply, which continue to affect its biggest refinery.
Figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria show that exports reached 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February.
Daily output averaged 1.46 million barrels in January and 1.31 million barrels in February, while export rates stood at 1.01 million barrels per day and 0.86 million barrels per day respectively.
Total crude production for the period was 81.94 million barrels, leaving just 26.55 million barrels available for local refining. This points to continued pressure between export obligations and domestic industrial needs, particularly those of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The $20 billion Lekki facility has consistently reported inadequate crude supply from local producers, compelling it to rely on imported feedstock despite Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer.
The mismatch continues under the naira-for-crude policy, which was introduced to prioritise domestic refining but has faced persistent implementation challenges. Market analysts note that a significant share of crude output is still channelled toward exports instead of local refining facilities.
Dangote refinery faces supply shortfall
From October 2025 to mid-March 2026, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reportedly experienced a crude deficit of about 79.53 million barrels. Internal estimates suggest the refinery requires around 19.77 million barrels monthly to operate at full capacity, yet received substantially less during the period.
Monthly allocations included 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February, with an additional 3.6 million barrels supplied in the first half of March. This represents only about 26.9% of the 108.74 million barrels needed over the period.
A senior refinery official told Punch Nigeria that operations remain below optimal levels due to insufficient domestic crude allocation, despite provisions in the Petroleum Industry Act prioritising local demand.
Retail fuel prices have also reflected the strain on supply, with petrol rising above N1,300 per litre (around $0.87 at an estimated exchange rate of 1,500 naira per dollar) before easing to about N1,250 per litre (roughly $0.83).
The refinery has attributed price volatility to limited domestic crude supply, stating that it has been receiving “about five cargoes a month from NNPC, far below the 13 cargoes required,” while still paying international market rates even when transactions are partly in naira.
It further argued that greater reliance on imported crude has increased costs, as local producers are not fully meeting supply obligations under existing regulations.
NNPC response highlights supply constraints and pricing pressures
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited said it is addressing supply shortages by sourcing crude from international markets.
A senior official explained that the company is “leveraging our global crude trading network to source third-party crude at competitive international market prices,” adding that efforts are ongoing to support domestic refining capacity.
The official also pointed to legacy supply commitments as part of the reason for short-term limitations, while maintaining that alternative sourcing strategies are being expanded.
Separately, Aliko Dangote confirmed that the refinery received 10 cargoes in March, up from an average of five per month since late 2024, though still below operational needs.
Industry groups, including the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, have urged higher allocations for domestic refineries, arguing that consistent feedstock supply is critical for energy security and refinery profitability.
As Nigeria continues to balance export revenues with industrialisation goals, the widening gap between production levels, export volumes, and domestic refining demand remains a key concern across the energy sector.