Nigeria’s trade balance with Canada swung sharply into a N23.21 billion deficit in June 2026, ending a 16-month streak of consecutive monthly trade surpluses, as exports to the North American country collapsed to just N1.54 billion, a significant dip of 99.55%.
According to a Nairametrics Research analysis of foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria imported goods worth N24.75 billion from Canada in June, compared with exports of only N1.54 billion.
The reversal was primarily driven by a sharp decline in Nigeria’s exports to Canada, which plunged from N341.33 billion in May 2026 to N1.54 billion in June, outweighing the increase in imports during the period.
Notably, the export of Soya bean product reduced by 79% from N11.15 billion in Q1 2026 to N2.39 billion in Q2 2026.
The June deficit marked a significant departure from Nigeria’s trade performance with Canada in the preceding months, as the country had consistently exported more to Canada than it imported from the country since February 2025.
What the data is saying
Nigeria’s trade balance with Canada deteriorated by approximately N355.94 billion between May and June 2026, swinging from a N332.73 billion surplus to a N23.21 billion deficit.
- Nigeria’s exports to Canada declined from N341.33 billion in May to N1.54 billion in June, representing a 99.5% month-on-month decline.
- Imports from Canada increased from N8.60 billion to N24.75 billion, representing a 187.8% month-on-month increase.
- On a year-on-year basis, exports declined sharply from N482.44 billion in June 2025 to N1.54 billion in June 2026, representing a 99.7% decline.
In the same way, imports declined from N60.64 billion in June 2025 to N24.75 billion in June 2026, representing a 59.2% year-on-year decline.
In June 2025, Nigeria recorded a N421.80 billion trade surplus with Canada. One year later, this turned into a N23.21 billion deficit, representing a deterioration of approximately N445.01 billion.
More Insights
The June 2026 deficit came after a prolonged period during which Nigeria maintained a strong positive trade balance with Canada.
The shift appears to be driven less by any specific policy change and more by the structure of bilateral trade. Unlike Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States, Nigeria and Canada do not currently operate under a preferential trade agreement that provides enhanced market access for Nigerian exports.
- Trade between both countries is largely conducted under existing multilateral trade arrangements, leaving exporters more exposed to market fluctuations.
- While Nigeria and Canada have taken steps to deepen economic cooperation, including discussions in 2025 around a possible Nigeria-Canada Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA), no such framework had been implemented as of June 2026. Consequently, bilateral trade flows remain heavily influenced by commodity trade patterns and changes in demand.
- The trade surplus was particularly strong in 2025, reaching N554.02 billion in July, the highest monthly surplus recorded during the 16-month streak.
Nigeria also recorded substantial surpluses of N486.05 billion in May 2025, N421.80 billion in June, N423.80 billion in February and N384.35 billion in April.
- The positive trade position continued into 2026, with Nigeria recording a N358.02 billion surplus in January, N58.31 billion in February, N148.84 billion in March, N388.07 billion in April and N332.73 billion in May.
- However, the sharp collapse in exports in June brought the streak to an end, pushing Nigeria’s trade position with Canada into negative territory for the first time since January 2025.
The reversal highlights the extent to which Nigeria’s bilateral trade balance with Canada has been dependent on the value and timing of exports, with a single month of exceptionally weak export performance sufficient to erase the sizeable surplus recorded in the previous month.
Get up to speed
The June 2026 deficit is particularly significant when viewed against Nigeria’s trade performance with Canada in the preceding months.
- In May 2026, Nigeria recorded one of its strongest monthly trade positions with Canada, exporting goods worth N341.33 billion while importing only N8.60 billion, resulting in a N332.73 billion surplus.
- By June, exports had collapsed by more than N339.79 billion to just N1.54 billion, while imports increased by N16.15 billion to N24.75 billion, converting to a N332.73 billion surplus into a N23.21 billion deficit within one month, representing a N355.94 billion deterioration in Nigeria’s trade balance with Canada.
- In June 2025, Nigeria exported goods worth N482.44 billion to Canada while importing N60.64 billion, resulting in a N421.80 billion trade surplus.
Despite the June deficit, Nigeria maintained a substantial trade surplus with Canada in the first half of 2026.
- Nigeria imported goods worth approximately N180.95 billion from Canada between January and June 2026, while exports to the country stood at about N1.44 trillion, resulting to a N1.26 trillion trade surplus during the first half of the year.
- However, in H1 2025, Nigeria imported approximately N221.62 billion worth of goods from Canada, while exports stood at about N2.13 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of N1.91 trillion. This means Nigeria’s trade surplus with Canada declined by approximately N643.85 billion, or 33.8%, year-on-year in H1 2026.
While imports declined by about 18.4% during the six-month period, exports fell at a faster rate of approximately 32.2%, accounting for the narrowing of Nigeria’s trade surplus.
The June deficit therefore capped a weaker first-half performance in Nigeria’s bilateral trade with Canada, particularly on the export side.
What you should know
Nigeria’s trade relationship with Canada has remained important, particularly as a destination for Nigerian exports.
- However, the June figures underscore the volatility in bilateral trade flows and the impact that significant changes in export values can have on Nigeria’s monthly trade balance.
- The sharp decline in exports, therefore, was the defining factor behind Nigeria’s move into a trade deficit with Canada.
The June result will be worth monitoring in subsequent trade reports to determine whether the N1.54 billion export figure was a temporary disruption caused by the timing of major shipments or the beginning of a broader slowdown in Nigeria’s exports to Canada.