As Yoweri Museveni begins a seventh consecutive term as Uganda’s president at the age of 81, attention is increasingly turning to the question of who could eventually succeed him. His son, army commander General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has openly expressed ambitions of taking over leadership, although many believe winning through an election would be difficult.
Museveni has now ruled Uganda for four decades.
The veteran leader was sworn in on Tuesday for another five-year term, which many observers believe could be his final tenure in office — though possibly not the end of the Museveni family’s political influence.
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, widely viewed as Museveni’s likely successor, supervised several days of rehearsals ahead of the inauguration ceremony, which featured Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets flying over ceremonial grounds in Kampala.
During the ceremony held in the Kololo suburb of Kampala, Museveni took the oath of office and received the instruments of state authority before thousands of supporters gathered at the venue.
A growing number of Ugandans now believe Museveni’s long presidency is approaching its conclusion, although uncertainty remains over how power could eventually change hands and whether the transition would be peaceful and orderly.
Two possible paths to succession
Kainerugaba appears increasingly positioned to succeed his father. He has repeatedly stated that his ambition to become president cannot be stopped.
However, analysts believe his route to power could emerge in one of two ways: either through a military-backed but unconstitutional takeover or through constitutional changes enabling ruling party lawmakers — who dominate parliament — to formally endorse him as Museveni’s successor.
Many observers consider an outright electoral victory unlikely for Kainerugaba, especially if he faces opposition leader Bobi Wine, the popular entertainer-turned-politician who has twice contested the presidency and rejected the results of the January election that secured Museveni another term.
Parliamentary Speaker Anita Among recently stated that lawmakers would support Kainerugaba’s presidential ambitions by all possible means.
Speaking during celebrations marking the general’s birthday, Among assured supporters that parliament would do everything necessary to support “MK,” using Kainerugaba’s initials.
She also claimed that the opposition would face even greater political defeat in the next parliament after being weakened in the current legislature.
Alongside the speaker, several senior figures have increasingly demonstrated loyalty to Kainerugaba. Analysts say the trend reflects both political survival instincts and the growing perception that he already exercises considerable influence as Museveni ages and increasingly depends on the military chief.
Andrew Mwenda, a close associate of Kainerugaba, wrote recently that many individuals close to government recognise that Museveni is becoming physically and intellectually exhausted and is less able to closely oversee national affairs.
Kainerugaba, now 52, joined the military in the late 1990s. His rapid rise within the armed forces has long sparked controversy, with critics referring to it as the “Muhoozi Project” designed to prepare him for the presidency.
For years, both Museveni and Kainerugaba denied the existence of such a succession plan, although many analysts now believe hereditary leadership is increasingly becoming the preferred option.
Museveni has never publicly announced when he intends to retire, and with no clear challengers inside the ruling party, many believe the military could play a decisive role in determining his successor.
Political analyst Angelo Izama argued that although many people are waiting for an official transition, an unofficial transfer of power has already begun, with Kainerugaba now wielding major influence over security and defence matters.
A leadership style different from Museveni’s
Supporters describe Kainerugaba as a disciplined military officer who generally avoids extravagant displays of wealth. He trained at military institutions in both the United States and Britain before leading the presidential guard unit, which later evolved into an elite special forces force.
Outside the military, he also founded the Patriotic League of Uganda, a political activist organisation supported by ministers, business figures and loyalists.
Unlike his father, however, Kainerugaba is not widely viewed as charismatic or politically flexible. Museveni has maintained power partly by negotiating with rivals and persuading some opposition figures to join his administration.
Kainerugaba is often seen as more aggressive and confrontational, particularly through controversial social media posts that have sometimes sparked backlash. He has also ordered the arrests of several generals accused of corruption, including some who were once considered allies.
Museveni first seized power in 1986 after leading a guerrilla movement that promised to restore democracy following years of civil war and instability. At the time, he criticised African leaders for remaining in office too long.
Years later, he revised that position by arguing that his criticism only applied to leaders who stayed in power without electoral legitimacy.
While many Western allies, especially the United States, credit Museveni with maintaining relative peace and stability in the region, critics increasingly accuse his government of becoming authoritarian and abandoning its original democratic promises. Presidential age and term limits have been removed, while some political opponents have been imprisoned or marginalised.
Lawmakers recently approved a controversial bill intended to prevent foreign interference, though critics warn it could restrict civil society groups and opposition organisations.
The legislation prohibits individuals classified as “agents of foreigners” from receiving more than 400 million Ugandan shillings, roughly $110,000, in foreign funding within a year without approval from the interior minister.
National Unity Platform, led by Bobi Wine, condemned the bill as unconstitutional and politically motivated, accusing the government of using it to target dissenting voices.