Ghana’s ongoing cocoa production decline and financial challenges are fueling concerns that the country may lose its status as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.
President John Dramani Mahama convened an emergency Cabinet meeting this week to address mounting challenges in Ghana’s cocoa sector, including delayed payments to farmers, liquidity problems at the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), and sharply declining harvests.
For decades, Ghana has ranked second globally, just behind Côte d’Ivoire, making cocoa a key source of foreign exchange and livelihood for more than 800,000 farming households.
Falling production deepens the crisis
Cocoa output has fallen sharply in recent seasons. In June 2025, COCOBOD, the government agency overseeing Ghana’s cocoa sector, indicated that the country would likely miss its 2024/2025 production target. The forecast was lowered from 650,000 tonnes to 617,500 tonnes in December 2024, with expectations that harvests would not surpass 600,000 tonnes.
COCOBOD Managing Director Randy Abbey noted on June 10, 2025, that 590,000 tonnes had already been collected with three months left in the season, suggesting minimal changes to the final output. Speaking at a press conference on February 6, 2026, Abbey revealed that while over 530,000 tonnes had been sold, around 50,000 tonnes remained with farmers, largely due to Ghana’s non-competitive farmgate price. “The situation is where we have beans, but they are not buying; the beans are too expensive,” he said, adding that measures are underway to resolve delayed payments.
The projected harvest remains well below Ghana’s historical average of 800,000 tonnes and far from the 1 million tonnes recorded during the 2020/2021 bumper season. COCOBOD attributed the decline to aging plantations, Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease, illegal mining (galamsey), smuggling, and climate-related disruptions.
Rising global competitors
Meanwhile, cocoa producers abroad are expanding, positioning themselves to challenge Ghana’s long-held ranking. Ecuador, in South America, is expected to produce more than 650,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, with forecasts reaching 800,000 tonnes by 2030. Ecuadorian farmers achieve average yields of 800 kilograms per hectare, significantly higher than West Africa’s sub-500-kilogram yields, and receive about 90% of world market prices compared with 60–70% for farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest producer, is also growing. The country, which mainly cultivates Forastero beans with some Trinitario varieties, recorded 641,741 tonnes in 2023, dominating Southeast Asia’s cocoa market. Exports totaled $47 million that year, and global supply projections suggest output could rise by roughly 30% to around 836,000 tonnes by 2026. Growth is supported by government programs and private initiatives, including Cocoa Life, aimed at improving fermentation consistency and farm yields.
Nigeria, currently ranked fourth globally, has signaled ambitions to increase production from about 340,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes, targeting roughly 6.5% of global supply. While structural challenges remain, year-round irrigation and state support could enable Nigeria to emerge as a credible contender to Ghana’s second-place position.
Global market pressures
As of February 12, 2026, cocoa futures have eased from their record highs in 2024 but remain strong, trading in the mid‑$3,700s per tonne, according to ICE global cocoa prices.
Amid ongoing market volatility, the United Nations Cocoa Conference will launch the new International Cocoa Agreement on February 13, 2026, aiming to strengthen sustainability and stabilize prices across the sector.
Ghana’s ability to hold onto its position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer will depend on domestic reforms and how swiftly it addresses rising competition from Ecuador, Indonesia, and Nigeria