Global food commodity prices increased in March for the second consecutive month, largely driven by higher energy costs linked to the escalating conflict in the Near East, according to the latest data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released on 3 April.
The FAO Food Price Index, which monitors monthly fluctuations in international prices for a basket of traded food commodities, averaged 128.5 points in March. This represents a 2.4 percent rise from February and a 1.0 percent increase compared with the same period last year.
Vegetable oils saw the sharpest gains, with the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index climbing 5.1 percent from February and standing 13.2 percent above March 2025 levels. Prices for palm, soy, sunflower, and rapeseed oils all rose, influenced by surging crude oil prices that heightened expectations for biofuel demand.
Sugar prices also jumped, with the FAO Sugar Price Index up 7.2 percent in March. Anticipation that Brazil—the world’s largest sugar exporter—would divert more sugarcane for ethanol production amid high crude oil prices outweighed generally favorable global supply conditions, supported by strong harvests in India and Thailand.
Cereal prices increased by 1.5 percent, mainly due to a 4.3 percent rise in global wheat quotations, as drought conditions in the United States and expected reduced plantings in Australia due to higher fertilizer costs pressured markets. Maize prices edged up slightly, with ample global supplies offsetting concerns about fertilizer affordability and indirect effects from higher ethanol demand tied to energy prices. In contrast, rice prices fell by 3.0 percent, influenced by harvest timing, weaker import demand, and currency depreciation against the U.S. dollar.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero cautioned that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supplies of staple foods and push global prices even higher. He highlighted the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for the transport of fuel and fertilizers, noting that any extended closure could force farmers into difficult planting decisions.
Debt-stricken countries are expected to suffer most from rising costs, which may compel them to purchase smaller quantities of food or lower-quality products.
To build resilience against repeated global shocks, FAO recommends a multi-tiered strategy. In the short term, countries should secure alternative trade routes, protect humanitarian logistics, and strengthen social safety nets for vulnerable populations. For long-term stability, investments in improved storage and transport infrastructure are advised, along with more efficient fertilizer use to safeguard food supplies.
Meat prices rose by 1.0 percent from February, led by higher pig meat prices in the European Union due to seasonal demand and increased bovine meat prices, particularly in Brazil, where tightening cattle availability reduced exportable supplies. Ovine and poultry prices fell slightly, affected by logistical challenges in the Near East.
The FAO Dairy Price Index climbed 1.2 percent, mainly on higher milk powder quotations due to seasonal supply declines in Oceania. Cheese prices fell further in the EU, driven by increased production and weak export demand, while rising in Oceania for opposite reasons, reflecting tighter supplies.