The government shutdown precluded Friday’s release of the monthly jobs report while putting other important federal data gathering and reporting on hold.
The monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key gauge of economic health closely watched by investors and policymakers, wasn’t released as scheduled this morning, leaving unanswered questions about the health of the US labor market.
Through August, the report showed signs of a sharp slowdown in the job market, with revisions released last month showing the economy actually shed jobs in June while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% as of August.
Data released by private firms this week, while not a full substitute for government statistics, offered further signs of stress.
A report from payroll processor ADP showed private employers cut 32,000 positions in September, and another report from the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed employers’ year-to-date hiring plans were at their lowest since 2009.
The longer the shutdown stretches on, the bigger deal it will be for those awaiting the official jobs data, notably the Federal Reserve.
While there’s “never a good time for the government to shut down,” the current moment is especially inopportune, Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet told Yahoo Finance. The Fed, which cut rates in September, is closely monitoring the health of the labor market and will meet again in late October.
“The Fed is always setting monetary policy in a data fog, but then it just thickens when you’re not getting the employment numbers,” Sweet said.
Sweet also noted that September’s initial data has already been collected and essentially just needs someone in the government to hit publish.
Meanwhile, the shutdown could also delay the release of September’s inflation data, set to be announced Oct. 15, as well as the subsequent 2026 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits.
October’s jobs data and inflation data, scheduled to be published Nov. 6 and Nov. 10, respectively, could also be pushed back if collection efforts are hampered by the shutdown.
“With each week you lose, you’re losing some time to collect this data,” said Stephen Juneau, senior US economist at Bank of America.
The 16-day government shutdown in 2013 delayed the jobs report and inflation data for two consecutive months. October releases were pushed back by about two weeks, while November releases were delayed by roughly a week.
Still, even with a two-week delay this time around, the Fed would have time to look at the jobs report before its meeting, Juneau said.
And in the last full government shutdown, “while releases were delayed, data quality for the period reflecting the shutdown was largely unaffected, with the BLS reporting normal-range response rates for the October 2013 employment and PPI reports,” Wells Fargo senior economist Michael Pugliese said in a note.
COLA calculation
It’s unclear exactly how a delay in releasing inflation data would impact next year’s Social Security COLA. The COLA is calculated by averaging inflation data for the third quarter — July, August, and September — based on the Consumer Price Index. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the actual 2026 COLA in mid-October, or in 15 days.
“While Social Security payments themselves are not affected by a shutdown, a delayed or inaccurate COLA announcement could create uncertainty for tens of millions of retirees and beneficiaries who depend on the adjustment to keep pace with rising living costs,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League.
The 2026 COLA is likely to be 2.7%, according to a recent projection by The Senior Citizens League. That’s a hair above this year’s COLA of 2.5%, which bumped up the average monthly benefit by roughly $50 for retired workers, and applies to more than 70 million retired senior citizens and disabled workers.
One possibility amid a shutdown: The SSA might just use the most recent value to make COLA calculations, said Gbenga Ajilore, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ chief economist and BLS expert.
Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said the COLA has been delayed before.
“In the 2013 shutdown… the calculation of the Social Security COLA didn’t change, but the announcement was delayed by two weeks,” she said. “It was ultimately announced on October 30th, two weeks after the government reopened.”