In January 2026, the United States significantly scaled back its imports of crude oil from Nigeria, reducing volumes by nearly half and reflecting shifting global energy trends alongside growing competition within Africa’s oil sector.
New figures from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveal that imports dropped by 47.16% month-on-month, falling from 3.149 million barrels in December 2025 to 1.664 million barrels in January. The reduction of 1.485 million barrels represents one of the sharpest short-term declines in Nigeria’s share of the U.S. crude market in recent years.
The monetary value of these imports also declined steeply. On a customs basis, exports of Nigerian crude to the U.S. fell from $217.36 million in December to $115.99 million in January approximately $218 million to $116 million at current exchange rates. Cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) values similarly dropped from $223.10 million to $118.95 million, signaling a broad slowdown in both demand and trade activity.
The difference between customs and CIF valuations narrowed from about $5.74 million in December to $2.96 million in January, indicating either reduced shipping and insurance costs or possibly shorter transportation routes during the period.
This decline aligns with a broader dip in U.S. oil demand. Total crude imports into the United States decreased by around 5.1%, from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January. In value terms, imports fell from $11.41 billion to $10.56 billion, suggesting an overall cooling in global oil trade at the start of the year.
Angola and Ghana expand presence as Nigeria loses ground
Within Africa, the trend shows increased competition rather than an overall drop. While total African crude exports to the U.S. held steady at 6.933 million barrels, other producers gained at Nigeria’s expense.
Angola recorded a sharp rise in exports, jumping from 575,000 barrels in December to 2.062 million barrels in January. Ghana also entered the market strongly, exporting 738,000 barrels after having no recorded shipments the previous month.
Meanwhile, Libya experienced a significant drop, with exports falling from 2.137 million barrels to 1.086 million barrels over the same timeframe.
Nigeria’s share of U.S. crude imports declined notably, slipping from about 1.59% in December to just 0.88% in January. This shift highlights how quickly market dynamics can change due to factors such as pricing, logistics, and refinery preferences.
Crude oil continues to dominate Nigeria’s exports to the U.S., though its share slightly decreased as overall trade volumes shrank. Total U.S. imports from Nigeria fell to $183 million in January, down from $297 million in December. Crude accounted for between 63.4% and 65.0% of this total, compared to over 73% in the previous month.
At the same time, the U.S. expanded its trade surplus with Nigeria, which rose from $84 million in December to $419 million in January. This was driven by a surge in American exports to Nigeria, increasing from $381 million to $602 million, even as imports from Nigeria declined.
Across the continent, the U.S. moved into a trade deficit of $503 million in January, reversing a $174 million surplus recorded in December. Imports from Africa climbed to $3.54 billion, while exports edged down to $3.04 billion.
Rising production fails to offset weaker demand and policy shifts
Despite the January downturn, Nigeria remains a leading African supplier of crude to the U.S. over a longer period. In 2025, the country contributed 52.2% of Africa’s crude exports to the U.S., supplying 46.618 million barrels out of a total of 89.371 million barrels. Although this was lower than the 50.793 million barrels recorded in 2024, it represented a larger share due to an overall decline in African exports.
The latest data is notable given that Nigeria’s oil production has been increasing. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported output of 1.64 million barrels per day in January 2026, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in December. However, higher production has not translated into increased U.S. demand, indicating that external market factors are outweighing domestic supply gains.
Financially, the state oil firm posted a profit after tax of ₦385 billion in January (around $260 million), even as revenue dropped significantly from ₦4.82 trillion in December to ₦2.571 trillion. This contrast reflects cost adjustments and improved operational efficiency, but also signals a more volatile earnings environment.
The fall in U.S. demand for Nigerian crude coincides with shifting trade policies and geopolitical factors. Under President Donald Trump, tariff-focused measures were reintroduced, including an increase in Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14% to 15% in 2025, adding uncertainty to trade relations.
Although crude oil has largely remained exempt from these tariffs, the broader policy climate has influenced market sentiment and sourcing strategies.
Economist Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, downplayed the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Nigeria’s economy.
“Our trade with the US is not that strategic. Any disruption is unlikely to have a major effect on our economy,” he explained.
He instead pointed to structural challenges, including Nigeria’s heavy dependence on crude oil exports and limited diversification, as key concerns. He also highlighted U.S. visa restrictions as a more significant long-term issue.
“Travel limitations affect business engagement and investment flows, which is more critical over time than tariffs,” Yusuf added.
Overall, the data paints a mixed picture for Nigeria: increasing oil output domestically, but declining demand from a key export market. As global energy patterns evolve and new suppliers gain prominence, the country faces growing pressure to diversify both its export base and trading partners.