Ivory Coast, the nation at the heart of the global chocolate trade, says cocoa production is beginning to recover after years of supply disruptions that drove chocolate prices sharply higher worldwide.
The world’s leading cocoa producer is projecting output of between 2 million and 2.1 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, representing the first significant recovery in production in the past three years.
The projection exceeds the earlier estimate of 1.8 million tons made by traders and analysts surveyed by Reuters, boosting optimism that strain on the global cocoa market may gradually ease following one of the industry’s worst crises in decades.
Ivory Coast plays a critical role in the international chocolate industry because it remains the world’s biggest supplier of cocoa beans.
Alongside neighbouring Ghana, the country accounts for most of global cocoa production, meaning any disruption to harvests in West Africa quickly leads to higher chocolate prices in major markets such as Europe and the United States.
During the last two years, cocoa prices climbed to unprecedented levels after poor harvests, crop diseases, and extreme weather conditions severely reduced supplies across the region.
The shortage placed heavy pressure on chocolate manufacturers, unsettled commodity markets, and increased costs for consumers already struggling with rising living expenses.
In response, several multinational confectionery companies increased prices, reduced product sizes, or cautioned investors about growing pressure on earnings.
Ivory Coast now says the period of elevated cocoa prices has helped farmers recover financially.
According to Yves Brahima Koné, stronger cocoa prices over the past two seasons allowed farmers to purchase more fertiliser and improve the management of their farms, resulting in better productivity.
Koné revealed that cocoa arrivals at the country’s two ports had already surpassed 1.7 million tons by May 11, describing the performance as a marked improvement compared to the previous two seasons.
The larger harvest may also reveal another issue facing the market substantial quantities of unsold cocoa still remaining in Ivory Coast.
A cocoa trader based in Europe explained that exporters and farmers delayed selling their beans in anticipation of even higher prices, leaving large stockpiles still stored locally.
The trader noted that considerable amounts of cocoa remain unsold on the ground.
Market analysts say that if these stocks begin entering Europe over the coming weeks, warehouses could suddenly appear far better supplied than expected, which may help stabilise prices after months of extreme volatility.
However, the improvement may not last for long.
Despite the stronger outlook for the current season, Ivory Coast has already raised concerns about risks to the next harvest due to dry weather conditions and weaker cocoa pod development.
Koné stated that preliminary field assessments showed pod survival rates slightly lower than last year’s figures, while farmers and crop monitors also observed fewer flowers and young pods in several cocoa-producing areas.
He warned that there are growing worries not only about the remainder of the current season but also about the beginning of the next major harvest cycle.
The situation highlights a broader challenge facing Africa’s cocoa sector, as climate instability continues to worsen and become increasingly unpredictable.
Scientists and industry organisations have repeatedly cautioned that rising temperatures, irregular rainfall patterns, and crop diseases could keep threatening cocoa production across West Africa, where millions of people rely on the industry for their livelihoods.
For international food companies and investors, Ivory Coast’s latest production forecast provides some short-term reassurance after months of turbulence in the cocoa market.
At the same time, it also demonstrates how vulnerable the global chocolate supply chain has become.