In a dramatic turnaround, the Ghanaian cedi is set to solidify its comeback against the U.S. dollar, with the Ghana International Trade and Finance Conference (GITFiC) forecasting an average exchange rate of just 10.02 GHS per USD for 2025—an impressive 28.94% improvement on 2024’s average of 14.10 GHS/USD.
Swift Recovery Fuels Investor Confidence
After languishing at a record low of 16.44 GHS/USD in late 2024, the cedi has surged by 8.891% in just one week, reaching an interbank mid-rate of 11.07 GHS/USD as of May 24, 2025. The GITFiC attributes this rebound to Ghana’s successful $5.4 billion bilateral debt restructuring, a $3 billion IMF-backed program, and decisive liquidity injections totaling over $490 million by the Bank of Ghana.
Strong Fundamentals and Technical Signals
Key macroeconomic drivers—rising commodity exports (gold reserves up from 22.3 to 31.2 tones), tightened fiscal deficits, and a steadfast 28% policy rate—have underpinned the cedi’s strength. On the charts, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits at 12.83 GHS/USD, well below the 200-day SMA of 14.53 GHS/USD, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Meanwhile, a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 90.13 hints at short-term overbought conditions, suggesting occasional corrections could occur.
Forecast: Range bound with Upside Potential
GITFiC’s quarter-by-quarter outlook paints a resilient cedi:
- Q1–Q2 2025: 9.00–11.76 GHS/USD
- Q3–Q4 2025: 7.09–10.50 GHS/USD
The full-year band of 7.09 to 13.16 GHS/USD underscores both the upside potential from ongoing reforms and the vulnerability to import pressures and global monetary shifts.
Risks Remain on the Horizon
Despite the optimism, the GITFiC cautions that high import demand for petroleum, machinery, and food, coupled with core inflation stubbornly above 20%, could test the cedi’s resilience. A delay in anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts or sudden swings in commodity prices may also introduce volatility.
While short-term corrections are possible, the overall outlook is one of cautious optimism. Strategic policy implementation will be key to sustaining this recovery.
For a comprehensive breakdown of the methodology, detailed quarterly projections, and a full discussion of risks and policy recommendations, please refer to the full GITFiC USD–GHS Projection document below:
Credit: Isaac Osei Owusu, Lead Research, Analyst, Advocacy and Policy, the GITFiC