The World Bank has retained its economic growth projection for Ghana at 4.8% for 2026, pointing to resilient economic activity, rapid disinflation and significant progress in the country’s debt restructuring programme.
In its October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report, the World Bank projects Ghana’s real GDP growth to edge up to 4.9% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028.
This follows stronger growth of 5.8% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025.
Although the 4.8% growth projected for 2026 represents a moderation from the previous two years, the World Bank says Ghana’s underlying economic recovery remains firm, supported by strong domestic demand and expanding digital services.
Strong second-quarter growth
Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 6.6% during the same period in 2025.
The World Bank says the expansion was largely driven by strong domestic demand, with investment surging by 53.0% and domestic demand increasing by 11.2%.
On the production side, the services sector remained the main driver of growth, expanding by 8.0% and accounting for nearly three-fifths of overall GDP growth.
Information and communications technology activity recorded particularly strong growth of 30.9%, highlighting the growing contribution of digital services to the economy.
Industrial growth also strengthened to 4.3%, up from 2.4% a year earlier, supported by increased oil and gas production.
Agricultural growth, however, slowed to 3.9% from 7.1%, largely due to a sharp contraction in fishing activity.
Private sector sentiment also improved towards the end of the quarter, with Ghana’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July.
The reading above 50 indicates a return to expansionary territory, supported by stronger customer demand and increased hiring.
Inflation continues to ease
The World Bank also highlighted Ghana’s progress in bringing down inflation following the exchange rate volatility of previous years.
Consumer price inflation is projected to fall from 22.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025 to 8.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain around that level through 2028.
Despite the significant decline in inflation, the Bank of Ghana has maintained a cautious monetary policy stance, particularly in view of risks from global energy prices.
The World Bank notes that the Bank of Ghana maintained its policy rate at 14% after assessing that the balance of risks to inflation and economic growth warranted a cautious approach.
Debt restructuring improves investor confidence
The World Bank also points to Ghana’s debt restructuring as a major milestone in the country’s economic recovery.
Public debt fell from 70.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8% at the end of 2025, before rising slightly to an estimated 52.6% in 2026.
The overall fiscal deficit is also projected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP in 2026.
The World Bank says Ghana’s reclassification to moderate risk on both its external and overall debt positions during the 2026 Article IV consultation represents a significant improvement in the country’s debt outlook.
It describes Ghana as the first country since the 2022 debt distress wave to exit the high-risk debt category altogether.
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, together with continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund programme, has also helped improve investor confidence.
Ghana’s sovereign spreads fell sharply from about 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026.
The World Bank attributes the improvement to the completion of the debt restructuring, sustained fiscal adjustment under the IMF programme and the subsequent reclassification of Ghana’s debt sustainability risk to moderate.
AI could accelerate poverty reduction
Beyond the near-term economic outlook, the World Bank’s report highlights the potential for artificial intelligence to support more inclusive growth in Ghana.
The Bank says Ghana could achieve greater poverty reduction if the benefits of AI reach poorer households and underserved communities rather than remaining concentrated among people who are already positioned to use the technology.
Its simulations suggest that broadly shared AI gains could lift three times as many people out of poverty compared with a scenario where the benefits are concentrated among households already able to use AI.
The World Bank therefore sees digital connectivity, access to technology and the wider distribution of AI-driven economic opportunities as important to Ghana’s long-term development prospects.